In this scenario, the narrative unfolds with Russia potentially deploying troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad, a Russian territory situated between NATO members Lithuania and Poland.
The documents suggest a strategy involving propaganda warning of an imminent NATO attack, with the goal of conquering the Suwalki Gap, a narrow corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
The plot envisions leveraging the transition period after the US presidential election, using propaganda to incite violence in the Suwalki Gap by December.
Following a UN Security Council meeting in January 2025, Russia could falsely accuse Western allies of plotting against Putin’s regime, rallying troops to Belarus and the Baltics by March.
The leaked document outlines the deployment of 30,000 German troops for defense against an estimated 70,000 Russian forces in Belarus.
By May 2025, NATO might enact measures for credible deterrence, potentially leading to combat between Western and Russian forces.
Despite Russian denials, European allies take the threat seriously, as seen in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The German Defense Ministry acknowledges the consideration of various scenarios as part of routine military planning and training.
