A ceasefire deal in Gaza, with the release of Israeli hostages and the first break in the fighting in over three months, appears unlikely before the start of Ramadan, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.
Despite hopes for a draft agreement this week after intense discussions in Cairo, one diplomat described the last few days of talks as “very hectic.”
Prospects for Israel and Hamas agreeing to a temporary truce by the beginning of the Muslim holy month are not promising, as acknowledged by two American officials. One official stated, “Hope is fading,” and a failure to secure a deal could lead to increased danger in the region, as warned by President Joe Biden.
Israel has issued a warning that if the Israeli hostages in Gaza are not released by Ramadan, a military offensive into Rafah is imminent.
Talks involving representatives from Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, and the United States have taken place, but Israel refused to send a delegation, demanding a list of hostages from Hamas.
Despite the Biden administration insisting that Israel has accepted broad terms for a six-week pause, Hamas is holding out.
A Hamas delegation left Cairo after days of talks with no clear breakthrough, and negotiations are expected to resume next week.
President Biden expressed that the situation is currently in Hamas’s hands, and while hope is not entirely lost, challenges remain.
The deadly incident last week, known as the “Flour Massacre,” has complicated negotiations, with Hamas pushing for additional assurances in the first phase of a potential deal.
If successful, the deal is expected to unfold in multiple phases, including a temporary six-week truce leading to the release of hostages on both sides. However, disagreements persist on key points, such as the Israeli military’s withdrawal from Gazan cities and eventual withdrawal from the enclave.
Despite setbacks, both the administration and Hamas express a shared desire for a temporary truce to evolve into a lasting ceasefire. The Biden administration sees this as a potential path to enduring peace, while Israel maintains efforts to dismantle Hamas, particularly in Rafah.
Ramadan, a month of fasting and piety for Muslims, is approaching, providing a window for essential humanitarian work. However, a quarter of Gaza’s population is on the brink of famine, escalating criticism of Israel’s refusal to open more border crossings for aid.
Even without a ceasefire, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urges an urgent increase in humanitarian assistance to Gaza. While acknowledging the unlikelihood of a pause and hostage deal before Ramadan, officials continue to believe that obstacles can be overcome and a deal reached in the interest of all parties involved.
