President Donald Trump’s previously suspended tariffs on various goods from Canada and Mexico are set to take effect on April 2, with additional import taxes on other products and countries expected soon.
As a result, grocery prices may rise within weeks, particularly for perishable items.
Imported produce plays a significant role in the U.S. food supply, accounting for about 60% of fruits and 40% of vegetables, according to 2023 data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Trump has imposed 20% higher tariffs on China, a major supplier alongside Mexico and Canada, which together provide over 75% of the country’s vegetable imports.
A News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data suggests that key grocery staples will be affected, including berries, avocados, and potatoes—especially those sourced from Mexico, Canada, or China. For example, the U.S. imports 100% of its fresh mangoes and limes, with Mexico supplying the majority of guavas, mangoes, lemons, and limes. Additionally, 91.9% of avocados and 91.4% of raspberries consumed in the U.S. are imported, mostly from Mexico. Other impacted items include frozen fish from China, as well as lobster and pork from Canada.
While larger grocery chains might mitigate price increases by adjusting supply chains, smaller retailers could face challenges, said Jenny Zegler, director of food and drink at market research firm Mintel. She highlighted that protein, produce, and dairy from China, Canada, and Mexico are likely to become more expensive.
Consumers have already adapted to inflation by shopping at discount retailers like Aldi and Walmart, splitting their grocery purchases across different stores, and using online delivery services.
A 2023 Mintel report found that 26% of U.S. shoppers had switched their primary grocery store, with over half making compromises in their food choices due to rising costs.
To cope with tariff-driven price hikes, Zegler suggested consumers explore alternatives such as canned instead of fresh fruit, shopping at local farmers markets, or choosing generic brands. Some households may also reduce or eliminate certain ingredients from their diets if prices remain high. She emphasized the resilience of consumers, noting that adjusting shopping habits could lead to discovering new products and suppliers.
