Canadians head to the polls today for a snap election called by Prime Minister Mark Carney, following the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January.
The election has been greatly influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s actions, including launching a trade war with Canada and threatening to annex the country, which has sparked outrage among Canadians and contributed to a strong comeback for the Liberals.
Prior to Trudeau’s resignation, the Conservatives, led by populist Pierre Poilievre, held a 25-point lead over the Liberals.
Currently, Carney’s Liberals are polling at nearly 43%, while the Conservatives are at 39%, making the Liberals favorites to win the most seats. The election was called on March 23, one week after Carney became Prime Minister. Polls in Newfoundland opened at 7 a.m. ET, with other provinces opening later based on time zones. Polls close in British Columbia at 10 p.m. ET.
Canadians will vote for a candidate in their district, with the party that wins the most seats forming the government. The Liberals currently hold a minority government with 153 seats, while the Conservatives have 120 seats. The rest of the seats are split among the Bloc Québécois (33), the NDP (25), the Greens (2), and four Independent MPs.
Trump’s actions toward Canada, including tariffs and his repeated mention of Canada becoming the “51st state,” have enraged many Canadians. Carney, a former central banker with no prior elected experience, has strongly rejected these ideas and vowed not to allow Canada to be part of the U.S. The Liberals have also criticized Poilievre, portraying him as a “Trump-inspired” figure amid growing Canadian nationalism.
A record 7 million Canadians voted early, and results are expected to start coming in after 9:30 p.m. ET, when polls in Quebec and Ontario close.
The CBC will likely declare a winner based on Elections Canada results, though a tight race could delay a final result. Early in the year, the Conservatives seemed poised to win, but the Liberals have gained ground, partly at the expense of the NDP, which has dropped about 11 points. The CBC projects the Liberals will win 161-204 seats, while the Conservatives are expected to win 111-146 seats. The Economist’s model gives the Liberals a 72% chance of securing an outright majority in Parliament.
